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To promote transparency and provide information, the Federal Planning Bureau regularly publishes the methods and results of its works. The publications are organised in different series, such as Outlooks, Working Papers and Planning Papers. Some reports can be consulted here, along with the Short Term Update newsletters that were published until 2015. You can search our publications by theme, publication type, author and year.
Other publications - FORVERG201201 (fr), (nl),
Articles - Article 20120927
Speeches & presentations - SP120922_01 (fr), (fr),
Speeches & presentations - SP120918_02 (en), (en), (en), (en), (en), (fr),
Working Papers - Working Paper 11-12 (fr), (nl),
Speeches & presentations - SP120918_01 (fr), (fr), (nl), (nl), (nl),
Forecasts & Outlook - FORTRANSP_01 (fr), (nl),
Speeches & presentations - ESA_2012_01 (en), (fr), (fr), (fr), (fr), (nl), (nl), (nl), (nl),
Closed series - Planning Paper 111 (fr), (nl),
The Federal Planning Bureau’s new outlook for the world economy presents projection results for the main economic areas of the world over the period 2012-2020. The projection assumes a stable institutional framework in the European Union and the absence of any balance sheet consolidation that would be severe enough to have lasting effects on GDP growth rates. In such a framework, the projection for the euro area indicates that moderate growth in final domestic demand and positive real net exports should generate moderate real GDP growth over the period 2012-2020. Output growth should be strong enough to outpace the rise in potential output, thus closing the area’s output gap by 2017. The closing of the output gap would be accompanied by a decline in the area’s unemployment rate, which should fall back to its pre-crisis level. At the same time, consumer price inflation should pick up, reaching by 2020 a level compatible with the European Central Bank’s inflation target. The budgetary consolidation measures that are assumed in the projection should lead to primary surpluses that would allow for a decline in the area’s gross public sector debt-to-GDP ratio.
Forecasts & Outlook - NIME 01-12 (en),
The working paper compares the financial structure of non-financial companies by branch between 2007 and 2010. In particular, the analysis focuses on the financial fragility of branches. It also tries to determine whether the problems faced by entreprises during the 2008-2010 period can partly be explained by the financial structure of those entreprises in 2007.
Working Papers - Working Paper 10-12 (nl),
Forecasts & Outlook - OPHERMREG1201 (fr), (nl),
Other publications - OPREP201201 (fr), (mix), (nl),
This Working Paper describes the process of the participatory foresight exercise "Strategic Long Term Vision for Sustainable Development" and summarizes its results. It gathers the different documents of this exercise together and gives some concluding remarks on the process. This exercise was organized by the Task Force on Sustainable Development of the Federal Planning Bureau between September 2011 and February 2012, with a panel of experts brought together with this aim.
Working Papers - Working Paper 09-12 (fr), (nl),
Working Papers - Working Paper 08-12 (fr), (nl),
Speeches & presentations - SP120614_01 (fr),
Articles - Article 20120614
Other publications - OPVERG201201 (fr), (fr), (nl), (nl),
The new economic outlook for Belgium for the period 2012-2017 is based on a context of budget consolidation and weak economic growth for Europe. After a year 2012 marked by a mild recession, the euro area should gradually recover the path of growth. However, this growth would be modest and mixed according to country. The main risk factor for these growth forecasts lies in the sovereign debt crisis and the evolution of the financial sector in the euro area. Despite this unfavourable context, the Belgium economy should avoid a recession in 2012 and register GDP growth equal to 1.4% in 2013. From 2014 onwards, Belgian economic growth should become more dynamic, without exceeding 2%. Export growth should amount to 3.7% on average on an annual basis over the period 2014-2017, which means that the loss of market share should persist (1.3 percentage points per year). Over the same period, domestic demand should have an annual growth rate of 1.6%, causing GDP to increase by 1.9% on average per year. Belgian inflation should exceed largely 2% in 2012, owing to a new rise in energy prices, the depreciation of the euro against the dollar, and increases in indirect taxes, but should fall below 2% in 2013, notably thanks to lower oil prices. In the context of a moderate rise in international energy prices, Belgian inflation should stabilize at 1.8% on average during the period 2014-2017.
Total domestic employment should increase by 8 000 units this year and by 14 000 units next year. From 2014 onwards, total employment is expected to increase by 188 000 jobs over the period 2014-2017. The number of unemployed persons (broad administrative concept) should rise between 2012 and 2014 (+ 64 000 units). Over the following years, employment should grow more strongly, while the labour force continues to expand, partially due to the pension reform. As a result, the decrease in unemployment should remain limited to 33 000 units during the period 2015-2017. Finally, as measured by the Eurostat definition, which allows for international comparisons, the unemployment rate should amount to 7.3% in 2013, compared to 7.2% in 2011.
Driven by the federal government's consolidation measures and the federate bodies' ongoing budgetary consolidation, the general government's deficit should shrink to 2.6% of GDP this year (compared to 3.7% in 2011) and thus meet the objective of the Stability Programme. Without additional measures, the general government's deficit should again increase to 2.8% of GDP in 2013. In the medium term, the deficit should shrink slightly to attain 2.5% of GDP in 2017. To reach a balanced budget in 2015 (as planned by the Stability Programme), additional measures amounting to EUR 11 billion are thus necessary.
STU 2-12 was finalised on 1 June 2012.
Closed series - Short Term Update 02-12 (en),
A major concern regarding the consequences of offshoring is about the labour market position of low-skilled workers. This paper provides evidence for Belgium that offshoring has had a negative impact on the employment share of low-skilled workers in the manufacturing sector between 1995 and 2007. The main contribution to the fall in the low-skilled employment share came from materials offshoring to Central and Eastern Europe (21%), followed by business services offshoring (8%). In manufacturing industries with a higher ICT capital intensity the impact of offshoring is smaller. For market services industries, no robust conclusions regarding the impact of offshoring on low-skilled employment could be drawn.
Working Papers - Working Paper 07-12 (en),
Users of Supply and Use Tables (SUT) and Input-Output Tables (IOT) compiled in different national accounts (NA) vintages face a problem of consistency of their data due to revisions in the NA. This paper describes the methodology that has been followed to compile a consistent time series of Belgian SUT and IOT for the period 1995-2007, in line with the NA published in November 2010.
Working Papers - Working Paper 06-12 (en),
Forecasts & Outlook - Economic outlook 2012-2017 (fr), (nl),
Speeches & presentations - SP120504_01 (nl),
Projections of use and supply of formal and informal carried out in Work Package 6 of the ANCIEN project show that if current patterns of care use and supply prevail, supply of care is likely to fall behind demand. This paper discusses the key policy implications of these findings. Meeting the required care capacity poses multifarious challenges for European welfare states, namely: how to limit the growing burden of LTC expenditure on social security or government budgets, especially in countries that rely heavily on formal care, and how to avoid an increased informal caregiver burden, while at the same time ensuring adequate care for disabled older persons. Technological advances could help close the care gap, by reducing the need for care and boosting the productivity of formal and informal care workers, or by lessening the need for care. As it is impossible to assess whether these efficiency gains will suffice to bridge the care gap, policies should anticipate an increasing care burden and plan accordingly for how to deal with its consequences.
Other publications - ANCIEN_201202 (en),
This report presents results of projections of use and supply of long-term care for older persons in four countries representative of different long-term care systems: Germany, the Netherlands, Spain and Poland. Using a standardised methodology, the projections show that between 2010 and 2060, the numbers of users of residential care, formal home care and informal care are projected to increase in all countries, but at different rates. The results also indicate that if current patterns of care use and supply prevail, supply of informal and formal care is likely to fall behind demand. Measures to increase LTC capacity will be needed in all countries; the key policy implications of these findings are discussed in Policy Brief No. 12 in this series.
Other publications - ANCIEN_201201 (en),