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Publications

To promote transparency and provide information, the Federal Planning Bureau regularly publishes the methods and results of its works. The publications are organised in different series, such as Outlooks, Working Papers and Planning Papers. Some reports can be consulted here, along with the Short Term Update newsletters that were published until 2015. You can search our publications by theme, publication type, author and year.

Documents (157)

2012

2011

2010

  • The NIME Outlook for the World Economy : Medium-Term Prospects for the World Economy - Period 2010-2018 24/08/2010

    At the time of writing, and although certain segments of financial markets do not yet seem to have returned to their normal, pre‐global financial crisis, functioning, it appears that the wide‐spread and massive policy initiatives of the past year have managed to avert any systemic financial meltdown and limit the depth of the world‐wide recession. Indeed, monetary policy, financial policy, the fiscal stimulus plans that began to be implemented in 2009 and the simultaneous boost from countries’ automatic fiscal stabilisers, all managed to limit the scale of the downturn in real GDP and employment levels. The downturn is also thought to have been limited in OECD countries due to the unexpected resilience of GDP growth in emerging market economies such as China, Brazil and India, who helped to prop up OECD activity by helping to contain the decline in world trade.

    In early 2010, policy has remained supportive on all fronts, fiscal, monetary and financial. However, with respect to fiscal policy in particular, after the massive public interventions of 2009, the time has come to look at the effects that these initiatives have had, both in terms of their support to the economy, but also in terms of their effects on countries’ budget deficits and debts and the exit strategies. A difficult balance must be struck between the necessary continued public support for the economy as long as output gaps and unemployment rates remain high, and the medium‐run adjustments to public deficit and debt trajectories.

    The current scenario is one where governments withdraw public support from the economy gradually without compromising the recovery. Over the medium term, public deficits do not explode. Real GDP growth picks up as the private sector begins to drive the recovery. In the euro area, we see the emergence of structural current account surpluses. In the United States, there is low inflation and a rebalancing of the current account deficit. In Japan, unfavourable demographic trends lead to low GDP growth; furthermore, the country is projected to continue down a path of deflation throughout the projection period.

    Forecasts & Outlook - NIME 01-10  Publication(en),

2009

  • Nime Policy Brief - Fiscal Stabilisation Plans and the Outlook for the World Economy 20/04/2009

    Since August 2007, the world economy has fallen into recession and has been confronted with a severe financial crisis. In the context of what is now a world-wide recession, what hope can we place in announced fiscal stimulus plans? Will the fiscal stimulus plans decided and implemented in both the euro area and the United States since end 2008 be adequate responses, most notably in the face of the current systemic financial crisis? This document provides an evaluation of the effectiveness of fiscal policy and of current stimulus plans. It indicates that, while the fiscal stimulus measures will undoubtedly prove to be useful in limiting the scale and duration of the downturn, they won’t be sufficient by themselves to prevent a lengthy recession followed by a tepid recovery. In order to maximise the effectiveness of the stimulus plans, these should be accompanied by accommodative monetary policy. Furthermore, in view of accelerating and underpinning a recovery in world-wide economic activity, fiscal and monetary policies will also have to be supplemented by measures aimed at re-establishing properly functioning banking and financial sectors.

    Forecasts & Outlook - NIME 01-09  Publication(en),

2008

  • The NIME Outlook for the World Economy - Medium-Term Prospects for the World Economy - Period 2008-2015 17/09/2008

    The Belgian Federal Planning Bureau presents a new world macroeconometric projection for 2008-2015 in "The NIME Outlook for the World Economy" of August 2008. The document also contains an analytical Focus featuring the US housing market crisis.

    The scenario that is presented in this new world outlook was built on the basis of information available through mid-August 2008. The international economic environment underlying the Federal Planning Bureau's new Economic Forecasts for Belgium of 12 September 2008 is based on more recent international assumptions, of which those relative to euro area GDP growth in 2008.

    In 2008, we expect euro area real GDP to progress by a modest 1.5% and by only 1% in 2009. GDP growth should reach an annual average rate of 1.6% over the 2008-2015 period and be gradually curtailed by a declining working-age population and by private sector capacity constraints which should lead monetary authorities to raise interest rates. GDP growth in the United States is expected to reach 1.8% in 2008 and to average only 2% per annum over 2008-2015, slowing markedly in 2011 as a number of significant tax cut provisions expire. In Japan, GDP growth is expected to reach 1% in 2008 and fall to only 0.4% in 2009. GDP is projected to rise at a low yearly average rate of 0.9% over 2008-2015. Japan's economic growth is projected to rapidly lose momentum as the ageing of the country's population leads to a decline in the labour supply.

    Forecasts & Outlook - NEO 02-08  Publication(en),

2007

  • The NIME Outlook for the World Economy 2007-2013 10/09/2007

    This August 2007 issue of the NIME Outlook for the World Economy presents a 2007-2013 macroeconomic projection for the major areas of the world. The outlook was produced using NIME, the Belgian Federal Planning Bureau’s macroeconometric world model. This issue includes a number of essential stochastic results relative to our new outlook, as well as an assessment of other less easily quantifiable risks that are currently seen to weigh on the outlook. The major technical assumptions behind the outlook and a brief description of the NIME model are presented in the appendix.

    Forecasts & Outlook - NEO 02-07  Publication(en),

  • The NIME Outlook for the World Economy 2007-2013 13/02/2007

    The January 2007 issue of the NIME Outlook for the World Economy presents a 2007-2013 macroeconomic projection for the major areas of the world. The outlook was produced using NIME, the Belgian Federal Planning Bureau’s macroeconometric world model. This issue also includes a number of essential stochastic results concerning the new world economic outlook. The major technical assumptions behind the outlook as well as a brief description of the NIME model are presented in the appendix.

    Forecasts & Outlook - NEO 01-07  Publication(en),

2006

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