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To promote transparency and provide information, the Federal Planning Bureau regularly publishes the methods and results of its works. The publications are organised in different series, such as Outlooks, Working Papers and Planning Papers. Some reports can be consulted here, along with the Short Term Update newsletters that were published until 2015. You can search our publications by theme, publication type, author and year.
Forecasts & Outlook - Economic Outlook 1998-2003 (fr), (nl),
Working Papers - Working Paper 02-98 (nl),
Working Papers - Working Paper 01-98 (fr),
As compared with the November forecast, the FPB now expects GDP to grow by 2.7% in 1997 (instead of 2.4%) and by 2.5% in 1998 (instead of 2.7%).
The Belgian economic situation has been affected by the world economy in two entirely different ways. On the one hand the Asia crisis has had a dampening effect on exports and on the outlook for business profitability. It is estimated that its impact will be 0.4% of GDP in 1998. On the other hand, the European economy in general, and the Belgian economy in particular, has recently shown signs of an upturn in domestic demand.
Activity growth turned out better than expected in 1997. The appreciation of the US dollar and UK pound meant that foreign trade contributed strongly to economic growth. Private consumption was higher than forecast. The NBB survey indicators for foreign order books would seem to show that exports may experience a lower rate of growth in the quarters to come, partly because of declining growth in world trade as a result of the Asian crisis.
It is increasingly likely that the growth in GDP for 1998 will be more balanced. The contribution of exports should diminish while domestic demand should gain in strength. This trend was already apparent in the second half of last year.
Consumer price inflation was 1.6% in 1997. This year, even a lower inflation rate seems likely. The underlying inflation rate has hovered around 1.25% in 1997, although import price inflation was about 4.5%. For 1998 CPI inflation is estimated at 1.2%, and the “health-index” should increase by 1.3%.
The impact of activity on employment in 1997 is still difficult to assess. The FPB estimates the increase in domestic employment at 0.6%. The impact on unemployment figures has been slight, due to higher participation rates. Employment should rise in 1998 by some 33,000 (or 0.9%), leading to a small fall in the unemployment rate. A proportion of the growth in employment can be attributed to specific employment programmes.
The better than expected economic performance should result in a lower general government deficit of around 2% of GDP in 1997. Due to lower interest rates and a declining debt ratio, there should be a further reduction in interest payments in 1998.
Closed series - Short Term Update 01-98 (en),
Forecasts & Outlook - Economic Forecasts 1998 C (fr), (nl),
Other publications - Relocation 1998 (fr), (nl),
Closed series - Planning Paper 84 (fr), (nl),
An improvement in the most recent economic indicators and a better outlook for the European economy have prompted the FPB to revise its growth forecasts. GDP is now expected to grow by 2.4% in 1997 and 2.7% in 1998, compared to the previous forecasts of 2.1% and 2.5% respectively.
Higher growth rates are forecast for domestic as well as external demand. The revision, however, is mainly based on external factors. Exporters are benefiting with a certain time lag from a stronger USD and UKP. The combined expected depreciation of the BEF over 1997-98 is now 4.5%. As it concerns essentially a depreciation of the currencies of the whole DEM-zone, not only Belgian exporters benefit from this, but the impact on the economies of the other continental European countries is also positive. This, in turn, improves market opportunities for Belgian exporters.
The recent import price increases are linked to the exchange rate evolution. Consumer price inflation, however, remains subdued and is expected to amount to 1.65% in 1997 and 1.7% in 1998. The recent and expected rises in short term interest rates on the European continent should not have a significant effect on economic activity.
There are a few small signs of an improving labour market. In 1998, employment should increase by 44,000, taking into account specific programmes targeting unemployed people. This should therefore lead to increased private consumption and higher tax receipts.
The macroeconomic impact of the 1998-Budget is small. The government deficit should be well below 3% of GDP in 1997 and 1998. The deficit figures of 2.5% and 2.3% for 1997 and 1998 respectively, announced by the FPB in April, should be achieved without difficulty. The expected economic growth and the measures set out in the 1998-Budget should even enable the deficit to be reduced further.
Closed series - Short Term Update 02-97 (en),
Closed series - Planning Paper 83 (fr), (nl),
Closed series - Planning Paper 82 (fr), (nl),
Closed series - Planning Paper 81 (fr), (nl),
Working Papers - Working Paper 04-97 (fr),
Closed series - Planning Paper 80 (fr), (nl),
Closed series - Planning Paper 79 (fr), (nl),
Forecasts & Outlook - Economic Forecasts 1998 (fr), (nl),
Working Papers - Working Paper 03-97 (en),
Closed series - Short Term Update 01-97 (en),
Working Papers - Working Paper 02-97 (nl),
Forecasts & Outlook - Economic Outlook 1997-2001 (fr), (nl),
Working Papers - Working Paper 01-97 (fr),
Working Papers - Working Paper 02-96
Closed series - Planning Paper 78 (fr), (nl),
Other publications - Buurtdiensten / Services de proximité (fr), (nl),
Working Papers - Working Paper 01-96
Closed series - Planning Paper 77 (fr),