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Publications
Dans un souci de transparence et d’information, le BFP publie régulièrement les méthodes et résultats de ses travaux. Les publications sont organisées en séries, entre autres, les perspectives, les working papers et planning papers. Certains rapports peuvent également être consultés ici, de même que les bulletins du Short Term Update publiés jusqu’en 2015. Une recherche par thématique, type de publication, auteur et année vous est proposée.
Working Papers - Working Paper 05-99 (fr),
Working Papers - Working Paper 04-99 (fr),
Autres publications - Input-Output Table 1990 (fr), (nl),
Working Papers - Working Paper 02-99 (fr),
Sustained economic growth in Belgium in 1998 was supported by rapidly growing private consumption and investment. In contrast, the contribution of trade to real economic growth was negative in 1998. Nevertheless, a strong increase in terms of trade, due to the low prices of raw materials, allowed trade still to make a positive contribution towards growth in nominal terms.
Export performance remains the key question for 1999: the deterioration of our export markets led to negative growth in Belgian exports in 1998Q4 (t/t-4) and the timing and strength of a recovery remain uncertain. International organisations are forecasting a clear upturn in world trade in mid-1999. On the basis of this scenario, the FPB is forecasting economic growth in Belgium of 2% in 1999.
So far, however, leading indicators suggest that the upturn in exports in 1999 could be weaker than expected. The Balkan crisis is also having a negative impact on growth prospects. On the other hand, the recent fall in interest and exchange rates in the euro area does improve prospects for 1999.
Domestic demand is not expected to be as buoyant as in 1998, and it should continue to drive growth in 1999. With a 1% increase in employment, consumer confidence will remain high: private consumption growth should be around 2%. Inflation remains at around 1%. The general government borrowing requirement should be less than 1% of GDP, due to the low level of interest rates.
The medium-term outlook for Belgium points to an average growth rate of GDP of 2.5% per year during the 2000-2004 period in an “unchanged policy” scenario. Gross nominal wages are expected to be broadly in line with nominal labour costs in the neighbouring countries. Planned cuts in non-wage costs should therefore lead to enhanced competitiveness. Nonetheless, the slightly accelerated pace of inflation in Europe should cause domestic inflation to rise to 1.6%. The average rate of growth of employment, strongly supported by active labour market policy measures, is estimated at around 0.9% per year in average, leading to a drop in unemployment.
Based on this scenario, the general government financing capacity should become positive from 2001 onward. The “budgetary margins”, which will cumulatively reach 1.7% of GDP in 2004, will probably be used to decrease the tax burden or/and increase expenditure: this “changed policy” scenario implies stronger macroeconomic performance than the “unchanged policy” scenario.
Séries clôturées - Short Term Update 02-99 (en),
Prévisions & perspectives - Economic Outlook 1999-2004 A (fr), (nl),
Prévisions & perspectives - Economic Outlook 1999-2004 (fr), (nl),
Working Papers - Working Paper 03-99 (fr),
Prévisions & perspectives - Economic Forecasts 1999 C (fr), (nl),
L'objet de ce rapport est de mettre en avant les enjeux et les implications possibles que le passage à la troisième phase de l'Union Economique et Monétaire pourrait représenter pour la conduite de la politique économique en Belgique (qu'il s'agisse de la politique monétaire, budgétaire, de revenus ou structurelle), en se situant dans le cadre du processus de coordination des politiques économiques qui se met en place dans l'Union européenne (grandes orientations économiques, Pacte de Stabilité et de croissance, surveillances des déficits excessifs, plans d'actions nationaux pour l'emploi, surveillance multilatérale, réformes structurelles des marchés, produits et capitaux...). Ce rapport ne vise donc pas à remettre en question ce processus de coordination, ni à critiquer la logique économique qui sous-tend les résolutions du Pacte de stabilité ou les objectifs de la politique monétaire qui sera suivie par la banque centrale européenne.
Working Papers - Working Paper 01-99 (fr), (nl),
Lors de la Conférence sur l’Environnement et le Développement (CNUED) de Rio en juin 1992, la Communauté internationale a souscrit à un grand projet de changement de cap vers un nouveau mode de développement appelé “développement durable”.
Séries clôturées - Planning Paper 85 (fr), (nl),
During the past few months, the signals concerning the development of the economy have been mixed. There are three indicators worth mentioning on the negative side. Growth in world trade, and in particular intra-European trade, has slowed. Partly in connection with this, it is estimated that Belgian exports have actually fallen in the second half of 1998, compared to the first half of the year. Thirdly, industrial confidence has continued to decline.
On the positive side there are four factors worth noting. Unemployment has continued to decline for the sixth consecutive quarter. Consumer confidence remains high and has even improved during the last few months. Thirdly, real interest rates have continued to fall and finally the government deficit fell sharply in 1998.
There are some fragile indications that the slowdown in the economy will only be temporary and that activity may soon resume its upward trend. Nevertheless, in terms of annual averages, 1999 should show a weakening in GDP growth, which is estimated to be 2%.
The upturn should be most visible in exports. Year-on-year growth rates for exports and private consumption should be relatively low at the beginning of the year and gradually improve thereafter.
Inflationary pressures should be absent. Underlying inflation will continue to hover around 1.4%, while oil prices should, on average, be lower than in 1998, leading to consumer price inflation of 1%, which is the same growth rate as in 1998. The health index should rise by 1.2%.
The labour market was particularly vigorous in 1998, with 54,000 more people in work (from June to June). In the second half of 1998 and into 1999, job creation is expected to be less dynamic. The June-to- June change for 1999 should be 33,000. The standardized unemployment rate should continue to fall, from 8.6% in 1998 to 8.2% this year.
In the area of public finances, the net borrowing requirement should be around 1.3% of GDP in 1998 and decline further in 1999. The primary surplus is expected to be above 6% in 1998 and 1999.
Séries clôturées - Short Term Update 01-99 (en),
Working Papers - Working Paper 09-98 (nl),
The FPB is reassessing the state of the economy in 1998 and its possible evolution for 1999.
In 1998 the Belgian economy has continued to grow strongly and has moved into a “mature” phase of recovery with exports and investment no longer providing the engine for growth. Private consumption, fed mainly by employment growth, moderate real wage increases and high consumer confidence, took over their role. Employment growth remains impressive.
The outlook for the world economy for 1999 has deteriorated: the Asian crisis has widened and deepened and contagion effects have started to affect also Russia, Latin American countries and, to a lesser extent, Eastern Europe. World financial markets have shown extreme volatility. Continental European countries will be affected by the deterioration of the global economic performance and the weakening of the USD, but should nevertheless become the fastest growing area in the world.
Any forecast concerning Belgium is fragile in this context but it seems likely that the GDP-growth forecast for 1999 given in July (2.6%) is too optimistic. The Belgian economy might not be growing faster than 2.2% with significant downward risks on the domestic and international side.
Many uncertainties and downward risks regarding the international environment are linked, and, given the interdependencies in the global economy could trigger all the others and lead to a sharp deterioration in the overall economic situation.
Export growth should be significantly lower than in 1998 while private consumption should be less affected. Employment should still increase by 0.8% and the unemployment rate should further fall from 8.6% to 8.3% (Eurostat standardised definition).
In any case, consumption price inflation remains subdued at about 0.9% (1% for the “health” index). Wage increases will remain moderate, under the influence of the “wage norm”. Interest rates in Belgium drop in line with international rates. This should be a positive factor for domestic demand.
Séries clôturées - Short Term Update 04-98 (en),
Working Papers - Working Paper 10-98 (fr),
Autres publications - Input-Output Table 1985 (fr), (nl),
Working Papers - Working Paper 08-98 (en),
Working Papers - Working Paper 07-98 (fr), (nl),
Belgian GDP grew by 2.9% in 1997. GDP growth should hardly be reduced this and next year: the FPB expects a growth rate of 2.8% in 1998 and 2.6% in 1999.
So far, the FPB expected the negative impact of the Asian crisis to be neutralised by a more dynamic domestic demand. While exports do actually slow down, it seems that domestic demand more than compensates for this.
The good figures for domestic demand in 1998 concern mainly private consumption. They are influenced by the concentrated purchases of cars after the biannual Motor Show but also by a number of other special factors positively affecting household disposable income. These will not be present in 1999 so that smaller growth rates for real disposable income as well as private consumption are expected.
Employment creation should contribute substantially to the income growth of households during 1998 and 1999. For both years, employment should increase by about 45,000 people (or about 1.2%), which is considerable compared to the past seven years.
About a quarter of the job creation can be attributed to special programmes, which are mainly taking place in enterprises. Moreover, wage moderation, as well as further cuts in employers’ contributions to social security contribute to a more labour-intensive growth and an improvement of competitiveness.
The business investment rate should continue to climb, but remains relatively low compared to the end of the 80's.
The wage evolution in 1999 remains dependent on the “Wage norm”. Wage moderation in the neighbouring countries constraints the wage evolution in Belgium. Gross hourly wages in the private sector are expected to increase by 1.2% in real terms in 1999. The risk of wage inflation is therefore limited, even though labour market shortages could emerge.
Somewhat stronger import price increases and a slightly positive output gap lead to a small rise in the inflation rates in 1999 (1.3%, compared to 1.1% in 1998). Interest rates should also slightly increase in the Euro zone as well as in Belgium.
Séries clôturées - Short Term Update 03-98 (en),
Prévisions & perspectives - Economic Forecasts 1999 (fr), (nl),
Working Papers - Working Paper 06-98 (fr), (nl),
Working Papers - Working Paper 05-98 (fr), (nl),
Working Papers - Working Paper 04-98 (fr), (nl),
Growth in Belgium in 1997 turned out significantly better than expected, but some weakening has occurred during the last quarter. The underlying trend in GDP growth should, however, confirm the 2.5% growth forecast for 1998.
The weakening in growth activity at the end of last year is to a large extent due to a significantly lower rate of growth for exports. As has been mentioned in other FPB-publications, the Asia crisis is having a dampening effect on the world and also the Belgian economy. The impact of the Asia crisis will mainly be felt in trade. Export growth will, therefore, continue to be negatively affected by slower growth in world trade. Price competitiveness has, on the other hand, improved considerably during the last two years. All in all, net exports should continue to make a positive contribution to GDP growth, but this contribution will be smaller than in 1997. As the effect of the Asia crisis is expected to be limited to 1998, some increase in growth is again expected in 1999 with GDP growth of 2.8%.
Domestic demand and particularly private consumption have continued to show a marked improvement. The consumer confidence index, strengthened by the creation of considerable employment opportunities, somewhat higher wage increases and good news concerning public finance, points to sustained consumer growth during the first quarters of 1998.
The medium-term outlook for Belgium points to an average growth rate of 2.6% over the next five years. But even with this rate of growth and moderate wage increases in accordance with the 1996 Framework Law, unemployment is likely to remain above the 1990 level. The growth in employment is estimated at around 0.75% per year and the supply of labour would increase by 0.2% per year.
The general government borrowing requirement should continue to show a gradual decrease and become a surplus from 2002 onwards in an “unchanged policy” scenario. The primary surplus should remain close to 6% from 1997 to 2000 and should increase again from then on. The debt ratio and interest burden are clearly decreasing.
Consumer price inflation should remain at 1.1% this year and show only a slight increase next year. If there are no external shocks and if wages continue to be constrained by the Competitiveness Law, there are few reasons why price stability should be threatened in future. Nominal interest rates should remain low.
Séries clôturées - Short Term Update 02-98 (en),
Working Papers - Working Paper 03-98 (en),
Bureau fédéral du Plan
